7investing CEO Simon Erickson speaks with Elysabeth Alfano about innovation taking place in the food systems industry.
June 16, 2023
There is an upcoming disruption of the food systems industry, and investors today can get in ahead of an exciting new S-Curve that’s developing.
Elysabeth Alfano is the CEO of VegTech Invest, and also advisor to the EATV ETF. EATV is the world’s only Plant-based Innovation & Climate ETF. 7investing CEO Simon Erickson recently interviewed Elysabeth for our 7investing podcast.
In the first part of the conversation, Elysabeth describes how she got interest in food systems transformation and why it is important to solving issues like climate change, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, and human health care. The global food supply system hasn’t changed much in the past 1,000 years and it could be ripe for disruption.
Elysabeth goes on to describe the limitations of our traditional supply chain. Animal husbandry isn’t really innovating any more, whereas the plant-based innovation curve is just getting started. She explains that our current system isn’t economical and is often bad for the environment. Beyond Meat has published research that says animal agriculture accounts for about 15% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions; with two thirds of those coming directly from cows. Consumers, governments, and businesses are all stakeholders who are interested in making food systems more efficient.
Simon then asks what parts of the supply chain will require the most investment, in order to create a $290 billion new industry by 2035. Elysabeth says it will be investment from businesses into their processes and supply chains. Perhaps with support from their governments.
In the final segment, Simon asks what the most common criticisms have been from people who are opposed to change in food products. Elysabeth also describes the investing methodology that she uses for her index.
Publicly-traded companies mentioned in this podcast include Beyond Meat, Cargill, ConAgra, Costco, Dannon, Nestle, and YUM Brands. 7investing’s advisors and/or its guests may have positions in the companies that are mentioned.
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Simon Erickson, Elysabeth Alfano
Simon Erickson 00:04
Hello, everyone and welcome to today’s edition of the 7investing podcast where it’s our mission to empower you to invest in your future. You can learn more about our long term investing approach and see our favorite stock market recommendations each and every month at 7investing.com.
Simon Erickson 00:18
I am 7investing founder and CEO Simon Erickson. Let’s talk to another founder and CEO who’s on a mission out there excited to welcome Elizabeth Alfano to the program today. She is the CEO of Vegtech invest, and also the creator of the EATV ETF, which is the world’s only plant based innovation and climate ETF available for public investors. Elizabeth, welcome to the 7investing podcast today.
Elysabeth Alfano 00:43
Thanks for having me.
Simon Erickson 00:44
It’s a pleasure. You know, we’ll talk a little bit more about the ETF in a minute. But can you tell me just a little bit about kind of what your goals of creating this were? And what you’re out there to achieve?
Elysabeth Alfano 00:53
Yes, absolutely. So I am 56, I want to make the most impact in the world. And the time that I have, I’m going to say you know, give or take 30 years. And I thought well, how can I use my skills and my resources to make the most change possible in the shortest amount of time.
Elysabeth Alfano 01:10
And when I looked at systems change around food systems, globally, I realized that by shifting one’s investments, and by shifting by investing in food systems transformation, I could impact of course, people’s revenue, and you know, potential alpha, or the maybe non financial folks their potential impact or their potential upside. But I could also impact climate change, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, and food insecurity and national security are actually tightly linked as soil health, human health, animal welfare, human health care costs. Really, the the list is quite long. And so I thought, well, this is something not only that could be good for returns, but could be good for the planet and people.
Elysabeth Alfano 01:56
And when I started doing all the research, I realized, oh, there’s going to be a massive shift of the global food supply system, it hasn’t really had disruption in hundreds, if not 1000s of years. And it the system, which served us all well, when we were growing up, does not feed a growing population. It requires too many resources. It’s too inefficient. We can talk about why that is. And so I thought, Oh, the change is coming. And I want to be there as an investor out in front. So that’s why I one of the reasons why I started the plant based innovation and climate ETF EATV.
Simon Erickson 02:33
I do want to talk about why that is. It’s not too often we talked about an industry that’s been the same way for 1000s of years on the program here. Technology moves fast, but it seems like there’s some innovation needed for food systems. And before we jump into some of what you mentioned, on that list, what do you mean when you’re saying food system innovation, or maybe perhaps to talk about some of the limitations about how we’re doing things out there right now?
Elysabeth Alfano 02:56
Yeah. And that’s deeply tied to the ETF. So I’ll just go ahead and explain that. So that’s kind of a 3d perspective. So in the EatV, plant based innovation and climate ETF, we invest up and down the supply chain. That’s why I call it food systems, because it’s really the entire supply chain, because that’s where you’re going to see all your emissions is really in the scope three way up there on the top of the supply chain. So to impact the climate and other inefficiencies or other damaging current systems, you need to go all the way through the supply chain. We invest up and down the supply chain on those companies that are actively innovating to replace unsustainable and inefficient current food systems practices for sustainable consumption.
Elysabeth Alfano 03:40
So that’s plant based innovation being just a really efficient technology, as well as a kind of technology and better for human health. So we look at those companies globally. So a lot of diversification there, because you’re up and down the supply chain. Lots of different kinds of companies in the supply chain, like ag tech and technology companies, ingredient companies and flavor and texture companies. And then at the end of the road, you have these consumer packaged goods companies. So this diversification along the supply chain, but around the world.
Elysabeth Alfano 04:13
And then also you have smaller players, which would be small cap, but you also have mid cap and large cap players, we can talk about who those legacy food companies are that are shifting the global food supply system, these large caps. So we have all this diversification. Okay, I’ve gone off on a tad bit of a tangent. And so we like to capture the whole story of the transformation because as we said, you know, animal husbandry, this kind of thing really hasn’t changed. I mean, there’s They’re squeezing every last last ounce out of the animal that they can now in animal factories, but there’s just not more to go. There’s just nowhere to go there right that that innovation curve is at its end, whereas the plant based innovation curve is just beginning.
Elysabeth Alfano 04:57
So those technologies that are going to replace animals. And when you replace animals, that means you no longer have to cut down trees to grow crops, give those crops water and land. They produce food that has protein and fiber. Are we giving that food to people? No, we’re giving it to animals and they need more land, water time up better cut down more trees, those trees could have sequestered carbon, oh, well, we won’t be doing that. We’ll cut them down, get a lot of biodiversity loss when we cut down the Amazon. Gotta give more water, more land more time, more food, still not feeding that food to people were still feeding that food to animals. So you see the inefficient business equation. And so it’s these inefficient business efficiencies, inefficient business equations that are going to be done away with, for business interests, for political interests, and also for human health and planetary interests.
Simon Erickson 05:56
Those are all very good interests. I want to add in the financial and investing interest in that too, Elizabeth. This is our investing show, I’ve got to be fair to the investors listening too. We’ll get into the consumer packaged goods in a minute. We’ll talk about operations in a minute, too.
Simon Erickson 06:08
But let’s start far upstream. Like you were just mentioning just a moment ago, we saw some research from Beyond Meat a little while ago that said that animal agriculture accounts for about 15% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. And two thirds of those are coming directly from cows. You put some similar research up on your own website, it says that the Boston Consulting Group quantified that plant based innovation would grow from about $40 billion to $290 billion by 2035. Seems like there’s a pretty big opportunity here to displace, like we were saying far upstream in the process, the reliance on animals and all the resources they require.
Simon Erickson 06:45
Is that kind of the core of what you’re trying to change? Or how you’re looking to change the world out there?
Elysabeth Alfano 06:52
People often ask me this, am I trying to change something? No, what I’m trying to say and it links directly to investors, is when I talk about all those systems disruption, that’s where one makes money. They make money by investing in the technologies before they’re adopted on mass around the world. So it’s not going to be Brooklyn in San Francisco that got the memo. No, this is meat isn’t going away. But how we make meat is going away. And that’s going to be ubiquitous, whether it’s India, China, old people, young people, educated, non educated, north, south, healthy, not healthy, young, old, the world is going to be eating differently, because if we don’t, we’re going to have political struggles, because some people are going to have food and water and some art. Because of the equations. We’ve talked about way too much land water, and tree deforestation, use soy to feed a growing population, we have to make this shift. And I know from my research that this is what’s coming down the pipeline, do I know exactly what year? No, I can make guesses. And we can talk about that.
Elysabeth Alfano 08:01
But from an investing standpoint, when I think about investors, I think about getting in early before that massive S curve adoption. So you are right. That’s the Boston Consulting Group that puts out the study that says we’re about $39 billion right now as a value cap. And the market is going to $290 billion give or take. COVID threw a year or two wrench in that. But give or take, we’re going to 290 billion by 2035.
Elysabeth Alfano 08:29
And why is that? Because there are three main stakeholders that are looking at food systems shift, which means we can invest in that shift and potentially make money that would be the goal here. The consumers, Gen Z, millennials, they are eating in a way that their parents just did not. They’re thinking about the planet, they’re thinking about their own health, they are thinking about how they want to move through the world. So you have the consumer that is more educated than ever. And that’s increasing exponentially with AI. So they know who’s a bad actor. And they also know about what they want to put in their body and where that package came from. So we have the consumer that wants something.
Elysabeth Alfano 09:07
Now we have governments around the world, China is investing heavily in alternative proteins, Israel, Singapore, the Netherlands, Germany, us, although us is not, you know, kind of lazy, a little bit lazy there. And that’s going to shift dramatically, because whoever owns food IP is going to have a lot more power and trade talks, etc. So food systems, innovation is going to become a topic, I believe, of national security discussions. So you’re seeing governments invest, that’s going to help ramp up to 290 billion and you’re seeing industry itself invest for changes.
Elysabeth Alfano 09:50
Currently, the business equation that they have is a very inefficient one. It takes about 25 to 35 crops to give cows to get one calorie of bee. It takes 15 to 16 for pigs to get one calorie of pork. Nine to get one calorie of chicken. So who says as an investor, oh, I’m gonna give you 30 cents, I just want a penny back. No one does that right? 30 to one ratio is a bad equation.
Elysabeth Alfano 10:18
So the business equation behind the food that we eat is very inefficient, not a good one for the business owners. And then as we become more cognizant about emissions, everyone’s going to want to change their supply chain emissions. It’s becoming more and more transparent to Gen Z and millennials who’s dumping pollution in rivers, who’s putting out the most emissions. Beyond Meat is even low. I will say, According to FAO and the United Nations Environmental Program, it’s closer to like 16.5% percent of the world’s global emissions come from animal agriculture. A whopping 32% of the world’s methane comes from animal factory farms, factories, animal factories, so that’s untenable, it’s unsustainable.
Elysabeth Alfano 11:08
And so one of the things we do with our ETF, if I could just share this story, because I think it’s a great one, and I have a visual if you want me to pull it up, we have been certified as carbon neutral by a third party Ethos ESG, which is part of ACA global, they found us to be carbon neutral without needing to buy credits, because if you’re not making the meet that makes emissions, if you’re just avoiding those emissions altogether, you don’t need to buy credits because you’re not covering up any emissions.
Elysabeth Alfano 11:36
But we asked them to go one step further. And we said what would be the global temperature warming potential of EATV compared to say the s&p 500, the most common investment tool out there. The s&p 500 index has a global warming temperature potential of 3.2 degrees Celsius. The Paris Accords wants us to stay under 1.5. Ideally, EATV, this food systems transformation plan and best Innovation and climate ETF, has a 1.18 degrees Celsius temperature potential increase. So well under 1.5. And a two degree difference between us and the s&p 500 index.
Elysabeth Alfano 12:22
So you see the kind of magnitude. This is also why we believe it’s going to be adopted on mass these technologies to continue to make beef. But without the the expensive middleman in the middle without the animals to still get the meat, it’s just how we make it as different, you see that there are drivers that are not going to accept that our global food supply system puts out 3.2 degrees centigrade of change, it’s just not possible for us to withstand that line. So that’s why we see mass adoption, because we have to do it. And all three stakeholders, the industry, government and consumer, they all want the same thing. At the same time. This is a massive push for change. And therefore we see a big investment opportunity.
Simon Erickson 13:07
That’s the one I want to double click on this. But I want to talk about that industry stakeholders. It makes sense, the political and then societal impacts of it certainly makes sense. Let’s talk about how this is actually going to happen. Because if we’re talking about an order of magnitude change, I call it $35 billion industry today. So at BCG is calling a $290 billion industry within the next decade or so there’s going to be a ton of investment required even to meet that demand. You know, if consumer if the demand is for real consumers want this, there’s going to need to be investment in this when you think holistically about the supply chain of how we’re doing things today versus how we would need to do things to meet that demand.
Simon Erickson 13:42
What parts of the supply chain are most in need of repair? Or what parts do you think are going to require the most investment?
Elysabeth Alfano 13:50
Yeah, so we really believe the money to be made as along the b2b supply chain, not the consumer packaged goods perhaps at the end. So what needs the most investment because it will produce the most positive results in the shortest amount of time. Ultimately, we are tasked with feeding more people more nutritiously in a shorter amount of time, using fewer resources, creating less damage. That’s what we have to do.
Elysabeth Alfano 14:20
And so you look at these technologies. So plant based innovation would be making high protein foods out of plants because plants is where protein starts. That’s why the animals eat plants. That’s where protein starts. So you have protein in plants, particularly goons, and grains and things so that would be plant based foods. But then you have precision fermentation, biomass fermentation, harnessing the incredible protein and growth potential of things like microbes, algae, fungi, such a fascinating world. Basically using technology we already have like brewing beer for menting beer from eating bread, you know, you can use these technologies and even more advanced there’s a lot of precision fermentation already in the pharma industry, for example. That’s how we make insulin today, we used to factory produce insulin from pigs. And it was too unsustainable of a supply chain. Because of African swine fever, it was too messy of a supply chain because of fecal matter. These things all on your food folks.
Simon Erickson 15:28
We’ll skip past that point. [laughs].
Elysabeth Alfano 15:30
We’ll move right on. So the pharma industry decided to skip the pig altogether. And they create the insulin needed in a controlled environment using no animals, no land, no water, none of this stuff, I’m very little water, obviously, there’s some water in there. But so we’re looking at the same thing, but on the scale for the food systems. So you can create the same amount of meat as a cow would produce in, say, two years, you can create that in about three hours using bio mass fermentation. So very, you know, when you harness that technology, at scale, you’re talking about a much cheaper way of production, much less resource use has very little damage, and just a more prolific way of feeding the world as the population grows. So then there’s also cultivated meat, taking the cells from the animal, and just growing the piece of food that you want, not the eyes and the ears and the blood and the tail, the hooves, but just the filet mignon. And now very few people can afford filet mignon. But when you get that at scale, it’s filet mignon for Africa, it’s filet mignon in India, you know, it’s, you’re talking about really a food justice issue as well. I don’t want to get away from investing. I’m just saying that the potential alpha here has this enormous halo effect of all these other things you can impact.
Simon Erickson 16:55
It definitely does have an impact, you know, and Elysabeth as someone who personally worked on alternative energies in a past life, I certainly see the opportunity for it. There’s a lot that can be done with this. But pun intended, when I say this, we still have a chicken or the egg argument to be made on this one, which is the scale.
Simon Erickson 17:10
You mentioned the scale. And that’s always a question that’s on the mind of how cheaply can you produce this if you’re replacing something that’s already mass market, and whether that’s biofuels or bio processing, or whatever it is, you’re still selling to retailers, like the Costcos of the world, and you’ve got plant based meat that’s competing against the traditional meats that were selling today. And if one is 10, or 15%, higher, consumers still are going to vote with their with their wallets, especially with inflation and interest rates going up in the macro that we’re serving today. How do you respond to critics or people that would say, you know, hey, this is just gonna be more expensive for a long time. We see the potential for scale, you know, down the road, but we’ve still got a tough battle, the price tag, barrier and hurdle in the meantime, here?
Elysabeth Alfano 17:52
Well, I think that’s a consumer at the grocery store question, and I’m happy to answer it. But from an investor standpoint, I’ll just say, Can’t time the market. And when this shifts, it’s going to shift really quickly. That is not a quote from me, that is a quote from the people that I’ve interviewed off the record from Cargill and JBS may believe these large meat manufacturers around the world. Nestle, Dannon, and dairy. They’re all making investments for change, because they see what’s coming down the pipeline. So yes, right, now, it is still more expensive.
Elysabeth Alfano 18:22
So you’re just going to see like, an I don’t want to say an inversion because animal proteins aren’t, you know, have some subsidy benefits, etc. It’s not like it’s a completely free market out there. But their costs are rising as well. And the plant base costs are coming down, particularly as industry gets on board and you get those large distribution chains from something like a ConAgra, which puts out Gardein, which is already at price parity. You get those distribution chains and those advertising dollars and you see the equation start to shift.
Elysabeth Alfano 18:22
And I would say who can blame the consumer. Of course you vote with your dollars, and you know, single mother of three is walking through the grocery store, she’s grabbing what’s easy to make, and what’s affordable, let’s be realistic. That said, there are many factors at play as we live in this post COVID world, if you will. So we’ve had a lot of droughts, that means that a lot of cows have died. That means how beef is going to be very expensive in the next two years. So you don’t, it’s not just the plant based items are expensive, the real true cost of animal proteins is going to go up as we start to internalize these what used to be formerly external costs to society, their cost of admission, their cost of polluting water, their cost of using so much water, so you’re gonna see a lot of inflation in beef in particular. So part of it is plant based coming down, but also with inflation, your and climate risk, you’re really seeing animal proteins also increase. And then as more governments spend more money now they’re competing, not just a feat, you know, you’re not getting reelected if you’re not feeding people. So you know, we’re getting more and more political pressures and more dollars coming in from around the globe. This is just going to scale up innovations, which means it’s going to be adopted faster. At the same time you have a political economy, climate where people are realizing things like emissions, and they’re starting to take this into factors in their balance sheet, as well as inflation.
Simon Erickson 20:28
And perhaps the dollars per pound that that’s shown on the price tag of something you buy in the grocery store isn’t reflecting the total costs. Especially if you consider some of those other negative impacts that are based on how we’re doing things today.
Elysabeth Alfano 20:39
That is right. And we haven’t even talked about the impact of health care costs. The majority of diseases today, about 3.1 trillion is impacted on the economy for basically lifestyle diseases, type two diabetes, heart risk, hypertension, obesity, cancers, colon cancer, large Wall Street Journal article that just came out yesterday about processed meats, bacon, deli meat, sausage, breakfast sausages, hot dogs, all class one carcinogens raising your risk of colon cancer 18%. Please, everybody go Google that Wall Street Journal and processed meats. So you know, there are external costs and you pay them you just maybe don’t know that when you scan at the grocery store, but you pay them. Sure thing.
Simon Erickson 21:23
And let’s let’s touch on one last thing here, kind of farther downstream, the supply chain too, which is the quick service restaurants or the QSR. I have a wife who is vegan. You know, Elizabeth, I know that you are vegan, too, I can proudly say I’ve tried the impossible Whopper and the plant based options that are out there. It seems like a lot of those fast food places have been have embraces, you know, at least in in trials of of, you know, offering something that’s different than what’s traditionally on the menu. How are you seeing the reception to plant based alternatives to traditional needs? Are these really shorter term trials to see how it goes? Are you starting to see volumes pick up with the QSRs?
Elysabeth Alfano 22:00
So you have a couple of things going on, you see trials as they’re testing it, you know, you might test something and let’s say february, march 2022, and that won’t get input into the system until September as a permanent item 2023. You know, these restaurants plan well in advance, and they plan their other promotions, etc. So lots of them are successful trials like KFC having beyond chicken nuggets, and Pizza Hut having beyond on their pizzas and Burger King with Impossible Foods. So you see quite a few of the QSR is trying them.
Elysabeth Alfano 22:33
And in places around the world like Europe, which is really more advanced than the United States. I kind of hinted at that before. You’re seeing McDonald’s really double down on Beyond Meat, for example, in Germany, the UK and even in Austria, so, and Asia growing rapidly in their use of alternative proteins. So you know, before COVID, you it was very spotty where you might be able to find a plant based burger, for example, we always talk about the burger. But of course, there’s other stuff, right, like sausage and deli meats. It’s all there, folks. But it used to be hit or miss now after COVID Because everybody went to Google and they figured out what’s better for their health. And they started really taking their health into their own hands like they take their finances and their investing into their own hands.
Elysabeth Alfano 23:17
And people have stayed with plant based options, even after COVID. Now they might not cook it at home. So grocery store sales have gone down a little bit because people are back to work, and they’re eating at the work cafeteria, and they’re out with their friends after dinner. So they’re buying less grocery stores at home, that college kid who used to be on the couch, they’re back at college, so groceries are down, but restaurant sales are really up and we’re seeing food service really up. Because if you may be we’re considering a plant based option before COVID. After COVID, you must have at least one if not two plant based items on the menu.
Simon Erickson 23:52
Another question for you, you know, you’re you’re very dedicated to your mission. You’re very well spoken about it too. I know that you’re doing a tour of the United States, and then you’re up and kind of out on the campaign here. Um, sir, I’m certain that you’ve run into critics along the way, it seems like anybody who’s dedicated to anything that’s going to change the world or make an impact, you’re gonna have people are gonna push back on it. What is one of the most common criticisms, you keep hearing over and over from people that don’t want to change? The way things are done right now? And how do you respond to that?
Elysabeth Alfano 24:20
There’s a couple of things I hear. People often tell me, you’re so certain, and that sort of maybe is unsettling to them. And it’s just I’m so immersed in the research. Most people don’t think about these things. But I’m so immersed, not just in the food and the food technology, but what’s happening on the political agenda, the national security agenda, the investing landscape, and all these things work in tandem. So I just see this perfect storm coming together. And then people often say, Well, you know, you’re trying to change the world. I’m only telling you the factors that are out there that maybe you’re not seeing. I’m not saying anything that isn’t out there and a fact. So it’s not my perspective, per se. I mean, if you ask me what I do, I mean, who cares what I do, first of all, but if you were to ask me, I’d be like, Oh, no, I’m the one cooking at home making my own quinoa and black beans. I mean, no one has time for that no one else is doing that. I don’t expect anybody would I’m not asking anyone to eat the way I eat. In fact, I don’t eat meat, and all I’m trying to do is get you the meat you want. So I don’t, it’s not really that I want change in the world. It’s that I want a more sustainable planet, I want a better food supply system. And luckily, who cares what I think I’m not the only one Gen Z politicians, Legacy food players, they all want the same thing. So they’re the ones changing the world. And I’m just telling investors that it’s coming if they’re interested in getting involved.
Simon Erickson 25:49
And I know that you guys are actively managing the ETF, right? You’re not relying on a third party for the administration of this. But that keeps us from talking about the individual names in it. But I still am allowed to ask the question of how do you think about the positions that you’re putting into the ETF, you talk a little about your methodology, the things that you will look for, you know, as you’re investing in this space with the intention of making profits, for those that invest in your ETF, what are some of the considerations that go through your head.
Elysabeth Alfano 26:15
I love this, we have a very set methodology. So it’s not something that’s going through our head. It’s a very strict methodology. And we have two proprietary algorithms, one to mitigate drawdown and one in momentum times, obviously, we’re not in momentum times quite yet. But one day, we will get back to momentum times in the market. So we do have these proprietary algorithms. And then we have a methodology. And that methodology is, as we screen out globally, throughout the world, we’re not interested in the companies that are supporting an old food system, because we think that’s going to be obsolete and therefore bad investment opportunity. So we screen in those companies that are actively innovating for food systems transformation through sustainable innovation. So those companies and then after we’ve screened out for anyone who’s not doing that kind of innovation and screened in all those people who are, then we screened for Financials, profitability revenue. And we look at their overall financial health, with the understanding of knowing that some of them are working on technologies right now, or they’re about to scale technology. So our knowledge of the sector becomes very valuable here, it’s very rare to see an ETF run by sector experts. And that’s where some of the greenwashing criticism comes in. Because if if you’re trying to do something that’s very specific, and you don’t have knowledge of that specific theme, to me, that seems like a recipe for disaster. So our expertise in the sector does play a big role there. Then, in addition, we look for any other externalities that might give us reason for pause or reason for risk, such as, you know, management issues, or if there have been any labor disputes in the press or any, any of the other ESG considerations. But that’s only you know, skimming through the press, and just making sure that there’s nothing slipping by us but primarily, we’re not supporting the old system screening in for animators in the new system and then checking for Financial Health and potential upside to there with new innovations.
Simon Erickson 28:18
Well, once again, Elysabeth Alfano, the CEO of Veg Tech Invest and the creator of the EATV ETF, which is the world’s first plant based innovation and climate ETF. Elysabeth is on a campaign across North America and Europe right now. Thanks for taking the time to join us on the 7investing podcast.
Elysabeth Alfano 28:36
So happy to be here. Thanks for having me. And thanks everybody, for tuning in to this edition.
Simon Erickson 28:39
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